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11 Ukrainian Hydrogen Supply Disruption

The Ukrainian Hydrogen disruption does not impact simulations results in 2025 Best Estimate and in National Trends demand scenarios (2030 and 2040); in those scenarios, there is no hydrogen import potential and methane demand curtailment is not impacted compared to the Reference Case.

The infrastructure assessment is therefore limited to Distributed Energy and Global Ambition demand scenarios in 2030, 2040 and 2050.

11.1 Yearly demand

11.1.1 Methane Results

11.1.1.1 Existing Methane Infrastructure

Ukrainian hydrogen supply disruption impact methane infrastructure and create demand curtailment only in the Global Ambition scenario and in 2040.

H₂ Infrastructure Level 1

Some Eastern countries show demand curtailment: Hungary (6 %), Romania, Serbia and North Macedonia (7 %) and Bulgaria 4 %. These countries are using at the maximum hydrogen production using methane and create demand curtailment. Other interconnected countries cannot cooperate with them due to infrastructure limitations.

H₂ Infrastructure Level 2

With more hydrogen production using methane and provided by interconnected countries, curtailed countries decreased their demand curtailment to 4 %–5 %. Bulgaria decreased its demand curtailment to 3 % and Greece shows now 2 % demand curtailment.

Figure 11.1: UA H₂ Supply Disruption – Methane Results for Yearly Demand in Existing CH₄ and H₂ Level 1 and 2

11.1.1.2 Advanced and PCI Infrastructure

The two methane infrastructure levels improve the situation and demand curtailment is fully mitigated.

11.1.2 Hydrogen Results

11.1.2.1 Existing Infrastructure
  • 2030
H₂ Infrastructure Level 1

Only countries without any interconnections are curtailed.

In Distributed Energy scenario, those countries show demand curtailment: Ireland 33 %, United Kingdom 46 %, Luxembourg 61 %, Slovenia 86 % and Serbia 100 %. Other countries compensate the Ukrainian supply disruption with additional Hydrogen produced with methane due to the flexibility of the methane infrastructure.

In the Global Ambition scenario, those countries show demand curtailment: Ireland 37 %, United Kingdom 46 %, Luxembourg 55 %, Slovenia 89 % and Serbia 100 %.

H₂ Infrastructure Level 2

In both scenarios, all countries fully mitigate demand curtailment due to new interconnections and increased capacities.

  • 2040
H₂ Infrastructure Level 1

In Distributed Energy scenario, all countries show demand curtailment (9 % to 10 %). Eastern countries (Slovakia, Hungary, Croatia, Slovenia, Romania) show 13 % demand curtailment. Countries with interconnections cannot cooperate with them to mitigate their demand curtailment due to infrastructure limitations. Bulgaria and Greece show 15 % demand curtailment and Romania cannot cooperate more with Bulgaria due to a bottleneck. Portugal shows only 8 % demand curtailment with high hydrogen production and cannot cooperate more with Spain due to infrastructure limitations between Portugal and Spain. Other countries ­isolated and without enough production show ­higher demand curtailment: United Kingdom (67 %), Luxembourg (84 %) and Serbia (100 %).

In Global Ambition scenario, all countries show demand curtailment (22 %). Eastern countries (­Slovakia, Hungary, Croatia, Slovenia, ­Romania, ­Bulgaria and Greece) show 28 % demand ­curtailment. Other countries cannot cooperate with them to mitigate their demand curtailment due to infrastructure limitations. Portugal and France and cannot cooperate more with Spain due to infrastructure limitations between Portugal, France and Spain. Other ­countries isolated and without enough production show higher demand curtailment: ­Ireland (55 %), United Kingdom (73 %), ­Luxembourg (84 %) and Serbia (100 %).

H₂ Infrastructure Level 2

In Distributed Energy scenario, most of the countries fully mitigated their demand curtailment due to additional interconnections and increased interconnections capacities. Only Eastern countries (Slovakia, Hungary, Croatia, Slovenia, ­Romania, ­Serbia, Bulgaria and Greece) show 1 % to 2 % demand curtailment due to infrastructure limitations with interconnected countries.

In Global Ambition scenario, most of the countries mitigate their demand curtailment to 3 % to 4 %. Eastern countries, mitigate their demand curtailment to 6 % to 8 %. Infrastructure limitations do not allow countries on the North and on the West to cooperate more with those countries.

  • 2050
H₂ Infrastructure Level 1

In Distributed Energy scenario, most of the countries show demand curtailment (20 % to 21 %). Portugal with 8 % demand curtailment cannot cooperate with Spain due to infrastructure limitations between Portugal and Spain.

Some countries not interconnected show demand curtailment: United Kingdom 26 %, Luxembourg 87 % and Serbia 100 %.

In Global Ambition scenario, most of the countries show 29 % to 31 % demand curtailment. North and Western countries cannot cooperate with Eastern countries due to bottlenecks between Italy and Slovenia, Austria and Slovenia and finally between Austria to Slovakia. Eastern countries show 50 % demand curtailment. Bulgaria and Greece show 53 % demand curtailment due to a bottleneck between Romania and Bulgaria. Italy, Austria and Switzerland show 37 % demand curtailment due to the cooperation with Eastern countries. Spain cooperates with Italy and shows 34 % demand curtailment. France and Portugal cannot cooperate more with Spain due to infrastructure limitations and show respectively 25 % and 28 % demand curtailment. France also cannot cooperate with interconnected countries (Belgium, Germany) to mitigate their demand curtailment due to infrastructure limitations. Some countries not interconnected show demand curtailment: Ireland 22 %, United Kingdom 45 %, Luxembourg 87 % and Serbia 100 %.

H₂ Infrastructure Level 2

In Distributed Energy scenario, most of the countries mitigate their demand curtailment to 3 % (including countries not interconnected in Infrastructure Level 1). Ireland and Portugal fully mitigate their demand curtailment due to additional hydrogen production using methane. In Global Ambition scenario, all countries fully mitigate their demand curtailment except for Eastern countries dependant from Ukraine and show 4 % to 9 % demand curtailment. Countries on the North and on the West cannot cooperate due to infrastructure limitations. Bottlenecks do not allow Hungary to cooperate more with Romania and Romania with Bulgaria.

SAR fig 073a legende

Figure 11.2a: UA H₂ Supply Disruption – Hydrogen Results for Yearly Demand in Existing CH₄ Infrastructure and H₂ Level 1

SAR fig 073b legend

Figure 11.2b: UA H₂ Supply Disruption – Hydrogen Results for Yearly Demand in Existing CH₄ Infrastructure and H₂ Level 2

11.1.2.2 Advanced and PCI Hydrogen

Results remain unchanged in all years and scenarios.

11.2 2-Week Cold Spell demand

11.2.1 Methane Results

11.2.1.1 Existing Infrastructure

Bosnia shows demand curtailment due to a bottleneck with Serbia (no link with Ukrainian supply disruption) in all scenario and years.

  • 2030
H₂ Infrastructure Level 1

Only Global Ambition scenario shows some countries with demand curtailment. Romania, Ser­bia, North Macedonia and Bulgaria show 2 % demand curtailment. Without any hydrogen supply from Ukraine, hydrogen production from methane is used at the maximum and infrastructure limitations with neighbouring countries do not allow them to cooperate with curtailed countries.

H₂ Infrastructure Level 2

Only Global Ambition scenario shows the same countries with demand curtailment. Romania, Serbia, North Macedonia and Bulgaria show 3 % demand curtailment. In infrastructure Level 2, the potential of hydrogen production increases and these countries go to the maximum and infrastructure limitations with neighbouring countries do not allow them to cooperate with curtailed countries.

  • 2040
H₂ Infrastructure Level 1

In Distributed Energy scenario, Romania, Serbia, North Macedonia, Greece and Bulgaria show 2 % demand curtailment. Without any hydrogen supply from Ukraine, hydrogen production from methane is used at the maximum and infrastructure limitations with neighbouring countries do not allow them to cooperate with curtailed countries.

In Global Ambition scenario, Romania, Serbia, North Macedonia, Greece and Bulgaria show 2 % demand curtailment. Without any hydrogen supply from Ukraine, hydrogen production from methane is used at the maximum and infrastructure limitations with neighbouring countries do not allow them to cooperate with curtailed countries.

H₂ Infrastructure Level 2

In Distributed Energy scenario, Romania, Serbia, North Macedonia and Bulgaria show 12 % demand curtailment. Greece shows only 2 % demand curtailment and cannot cooperate more with Bulgaria due to a bottleneck. Without any hydrogen supply from Ukraine, hydrogen production from methane is used at the maximum and infrastructure limitations with neighbouring countries do not allow them to cooperate with curtailed countries.

In Global Ambition scenario, countries need more hydrogen and Romania, Serbia, North Macedonia, Greece and Bulgaria show 16 % demand curtailment. Without any hydrogen supply from Ukraine, hydrogen production from methane is used at the maximum and infrastructure limitations (bottlenecks) with neighbouring countries do not allow them to cooperate with curtailed countries.

  • 2050
H₂ Infrastructure Level 1

In Distributed Energy and Global Ambition ­scenario, Ukrainian hydrogen supply disruption does not create any methane curtailment.

H₂ Infrastructure Level 2

Only Global Ambition scenario shows some countries with demand curtailment. Romania, Serbia, North Macedonia, Greece and Bulgaria show 8 % to 9 % demand curtailment. Croatia shows only 1 % demand curtailment. Without any hydrogen supply from Ukraine, hydrogen production from methane is used at the maximum and infrastructure limitations with neighbouring countries do not allow them to cooperate with curtailed countries.

SAR fig 074a legend

Figure 11.3a: UA H₂ Supply Disruption – Methane Results for 2W Demand in Existing CH₄ Infrastructure and H₂ Level 1

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Figure 11.3b: UA H₂ Supply Disruption – Methane Results for 2W Demand in Existing CH₄ Infrastructure and H₂ Level 2

11.2.1.2 Advanced and PCI Infrastructure

There is no demand curtailment in any year of any of the scenarios.

11.2.2 Hydrogen Results

11.2.2.1 Existing Infrastructure
  • 2030
H₂ Infrastructure Level 1

In Distributed Energy scenario, all countries show demand curtailment. Most of the countries show 20 % demand curtailment. Italy shows 15 % demand curtailment and cannot cooperate with Austria due to a bottleneck and The Netherlands shows 32 % demand curtailment due to infrastructure limitations with Belgium and Germany. Some countries are not interconnected and show more demand curtailment: Serbia (100 %), Slovenia (89 %), United Kingdom (71 %), Luxembourg (70 %), Ireland (43 %) and Croatia (38 %). Their own production cannot satisfy their demand.

In Global Ambition scenario, situation is similar with different demand curtailment values due to ­different demand values. All countries show demand curtailment except for Italy. Most of the countries show 11 % demand curtailment. The Netherlands shows 23 % demand curtailment due to bottlenecks with Belgium and Germany. Some countries are not interconnected and show more demand curtailment: Serbia (100 %), Slovenia (92 %), United Kingdom (69 %), Luxembourg (66 %), Ireland (46 %) and Croatia (32 %). Their own production cannot satisfy their demand.

H₂ Infrastructure Level 2

In Distributed Energy scenario, all demand curtailment is mitigated due to the new interconnections and additional hydrogen production using methane. Most of the countries show 10 % demand curtailment and countries not interconnected show more demand curtailment: Serbia (41 %), Croatia (41 %), Slovenia (29 %), United Kingdom (19 %) and ­Luxembourg (15 %).

In Global Ambition scenario, all demand curtailment is mitigated due to the new interconnections and additional hydrogen production using methane. Most of the countries show 2 % demand curtailment only and countries not interconnected show more demand curtailment: Serbia (41 %), Croatia (40 %), Slovenia (32 %), United Kingdom (27 %) and Luxembourg (17 %). Italy fully mitigates its demand curtailment.

  • 2040
H₂ Infrastructure Level 1

In Distributed Energy scenario, all countries show demand curtailment. Most of the countries show 41 % demand curtailment. Some countries are not interconnected and show more demand curtailment: Serbia (100 %), United Kingdom (83 %) and Luxembourg (87 %). Their own production cannot satisfy their demand. Ireland can satisfy its demand with its own hydrogen production.

In Global Ambition scenario, most of the countries show 55 % demand curtailment. Eastern countries (Greece, Bulgaria, Romania, Slovenia, Croatia, Hungary and Slovakia) are directly impacted by the Ukrainian hydrogen supply disruption and show 60 % demand curtailment. Infrastructure limitations within interconnected countries do not allow them to cooperate more to mitigate Eastern countries demand curtailment. Countries which are not interconnected also show more demand curtailment: Serbia (100 %), Luxembourg (91 %), United Kingdom (85 %) and Ireland (69 %). Their own production cannot satisfy their demand.

H₂ Infrastructure Level 2

In Distributed Energy scenario, all countries mitigate their demand curtailment due to the new interconnections and additional hydrogen production using methane. Most of the countries show 28 % demand curtailment. United Kingdom shows 32 % demand curtailment due to infrastructure limitations with Ireland and Belgium.

In Global Ambition scenario, all countries mitigate their demand curtailment due to the new interconnections and additional hydrogen production using methane. Most of the countries show 38 % demand curtailment. Eastern countries (Greece, Bulgaria, Romania, Slovenia, Croatia and Hungary) are directly impacted by the Ukrainian hydrogen supply disruption and show 42 % demand curtailment. Infrastructure limitations with interconnected countries do not allow them to cooperate more to mitigate Eastern countries demand curtailment. Ireland mitigates its demand curtailment to 22 % due to the additional hydrogen production using methane.

  • 2050
H₂ Infrastructure Level 1

In Distributed Energy scenario, all countries show demand curtailment. Most of the countries show 47 % demand curtailment. Some countries are not interconnected and show more demand curtailment: Serbia (100 %), United Kingdom (57 %) and Luxembourg (90 %). Their own production cannot satisfy their demand. Ireland can satisfy its demand with its own hydrogen production. Portugal shows 32 % demand curtailment and cannot cooperate more with Spain due to a bottleneck.

In Global Ambition scenario, most of the countries show 59 % demand curtailment. Eastern countries (Greece, Bulgaria, Romania, Slovenia, Croatia, Hungary and Slovakia) are directly impacted by the Ukrainian hydrogen supply disruption and show 73 % demand curtailment. Infrastructure limitations with interconnected countries do not allow them to cooperate more to mitigate Eastern countries demand curtailment. Other countries (Austria, Switzerland, Italy, Spain and Portugal) cooperate at the maximum with Eastern countries and show 65 % demand curtailment. France cannot cooperate more with Spain due to ­infrastructure ­limitations. Countries not interconnected show more demand curtailment: Serbia (100 %), Luxembourg (94 %) and United Kingdom (68 %). Their own production cannot satisfy their demand. Ireland shows 51 % demand curtailment.

H₂ Infrastructure Level 2

In Distributed Energy scenario, all countries ­mitigate their demand curtailment due to the new interconnections and additional hydrogen production using methane. Most of the countries show 23 % demand curtailment. Portugal mitigates its demand curtailment to 20 % and Ireland fully mitigates its demand curtailment. United Kingdom mitigates its demand curtailment to 27 % and Belgium and Ireland cannot cooperate more due to infrastructure limitations.

In Global Ambition scenario, all countries mitigate their demand curtailment due to the new interconnections and additional hydrogen production using methane. Most of the countries show 24 % demand curtailment. Eastern countries (Greece, Bulgaria, Romania, Slovenia, Croatia, Hungary and Slovakia) are directly impacted by the Ukrainian hydrogen supply disruption and show 38 % to 43 % demand curtailment. Infrastructure limitations (bottlenecks) with interconnected countries do not allow them to cooperate more to mitigate Eastern countries demand curtailment. Romania, Bulgaria and Greece show 43 % demand curtailment and Hungary cannot cooperate more with Romania due to a bottleneck. Other countries (France, Switzerland, Italy, Spain and Portugal) cooperate at the maximum with Eastern countries and show 21 % demand curtailment.

SAR fig 075a legende

Figure 11.4a: UA H₂ Supply Disruption – Hydrogen Results for 2W Demand in PCI & Advanced CH₄ Infrastructure and H₂ Level 1

SAR fig 075b legende

Figure 11.4b: UA H₂ Supply Disruption – Hydrogen Results for 2W Demand in PCI & Advanced CH₄ Infrastructure and H₂ Level 2

11.2.2.2 Advanced and PCI Infrastructure

Advanced and PCI methane infrastructure levels do not change simulation results in Existing. Advanced and PCI infrastructure levels add more flexibility on the methane side, but hydrogen production is capped and this additional flexibility cannot be used.

11.3 2-Week Dunkelflaute demand

The 2-Week Dunkelflaute country demands are generally very similar to the 2-Week Cold Spell demand values. Hydrogen demand is the same for Best Estimate and National Trends scenarios and it is also the same in the year 2030 of Distributed Energy and Global Ambition scenarios. Regarding Distributed Energy and Global Ambition scenarios in 2040 and 2050, only Italy, The Netherlands, Romania and United Kingdom show higher values in 2-Week Dunkelflaute. Regarding the methane demand values, only Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Germany, Croatia and Italy present slight differences when comparing demand of 2-Week Dunkelflaute with 2-Week Cold in Best Estimate and National trends scenarios.

In Distributed Energy and Global Ambition scenarios just Spain, France, Greece, Italy, The Netherlands, Portugal, Romania and United Kingdom present higher methane demand in 2-Week Dunkelflaute.

Consequently, the curtailment rate results in 2-Week Dunkelflaute and in 2-Week Cold Spell are exactly the same for most of the countries. The countries with higher demand in 2-Week Dunkelflaute are only increasing their demand curtailment rate in 1 or 2 % maximum.

11.4 Peak demand

11.4.1 Methane Results

11.4.1.1 Existing Infrastructure
  • 2030
H₂ Infrastructure Level 1

Distributed Energy scenario shows some countries with demand curtailment. Romania, Serbia, North Macedonia, Greece and Bulgaria show 7 % demand curtailment. Without any hydrogen supply from Ukraine, hydrogen production from methane is used at the maximum and infrastructure limitations with neighbouring countries do not allow them to cooperate with curtailed countries.

Global Ambition scenario shows some countries with demand curtailment. Romania, Serbia, North Macedonia, Greece and Bulgaria show 18 % demand curtailment. Sweden shows 21 % demand curtailment due to a very high methane peak demand. Without any hydrogen supply from Ukraine, hydrogen production from methane is used at the maximum and infrastructure limitations with neighbouring countries do not allow them to cooperate with curtailed countries.

H₂ Infrastructure Level 2

In Distributed Energy scenario, the same countries show demand curtailment with highest values (10 %). In infrastructure Level 2, the potential of hydrogen production using methane increases and these countries go to the maximum and infrastructure limitations with neighbouring countries do not allow them to cooperate with curtailed countries.

Global Ambition scenario shows the same countries with highest demand curtailment (18 %). Sweden mitigates its demand curtailment to 14 % and Poland, Czech Republic and Slovakia show 1 % demand curtailment. In infrastructure Level 2, the potential of hydrogen production increases and these countries go to the maximum and infrastructure limitations with neighbouring countries do not allow them to cooperate with curtailed countries.

  • 2040
H₂ Infrastructure Level 1

In Distributed Energy scenario, Romania, Serbia, North Macedonia, Greece and Bulgaria show 11 % demand curtailment. Without any hydrogen supply from Ukraine, hydrogen production from methane is used at the maximum and infrastructure ­limitations with neighbouring countries do not allow them to cooperate with countries curtailed.

In Global Ambition scenario, Romania, Serbia, North Macedonia, Greece and Bulgaria show 12 % demand curtailment and Sweden 11 % due to a very high methane peak demand. Without any hydrogen supply from Ukraine, hydrogen production from methane is used at the maximum and infrastructure limitations with neighbouring countries do not allow them to cooperate with curtailed countries.

H₂ Infrastructure Level 2

In Distributed Energy scenario, Romania, Serbia, North Macedonia and Bulgaria show 24 % demand curtailment. Greece shows only 9 % demand curtailment and cannot cooperate more with Bulgaria due to abottleneck. Without any hydrogen supply from Ukraine, hydrogen production from methane is used at the maximum and infrastructure limitations with neighbouring countries do not allow them to cooperate with curtailed countries.

In Global Ambition scenario, countries need more hydrogen and Romania, Serbia, North Macedonia, Greece and Bulgaria show 27 % demand curtailment and Croatia 8 %. Without any hydrogen supply from Ukraine, hydrogen production from methane is used at the maximum and infrastructure limitations with neighbouring countries do not allow them to cooperate with curtailed countries.

  • 2050
H₂ Infrastructure Level 1

In the Distributed Energy and the Global Ambition scenario, Ukrainian hydrogen supply disruption does not create any methane curtailment.

H₂ Infrastructure Level 2

Only Global Ambition scenario shows some countries with demand curtailment. Romania, Serbia, North Macedonia, Greece and Bulgaria show 18 % demand curtailment. Croatia shows 13 % demand curtailment. Without any hydrogen supply from Ukraine, hydrogen production from methane is used at the maximum and infrastructure limitations with neighbouring countries do not allow them to ­cooperate with curtailed countries.

SAR fig 076a legende

Figure 11.5a: UA H₂ Supply Disruption – Methane Results for Peak Demand in Existing CH₄ Infrastructure and H₂ Level 1

SAR fig 076b legende

Figure 11.5b: UA H₂ Supply Disruption – Methane Results for Peak Demand in Existing CH₄ Infrastructure and H₂ Level 2

11.4.1.2 Advanced and PCI Infrastructure

There is no demand curtailment in both scenarios and years except for Sweden, in Global Ambition scenario in 2030 and 2040 in both hydrogen ­infrastructure levels due to a very high methane peak demand.

Demand curtailment values for Sweden remain unchanged compared to Existing Methane infrastructure level.

11.4.2 Hydrogen Results

11.4.2.1 Existing Infrastructure
  • 2030
H₂ Infrastructure Level 1

In Distributed Energy scenario, all countries show demand curtailment. Most of the countries show 32 % demand curtailment. The Netherlands shows 46 % demand curtailment and Belgium and Germany cannot cooperate more due to ­infrastructure limitations (bottlenecks). Countries not ­interconnected to the hydrogen network show highest demand curtailment values: Serbia (100 %), ­Slovenia (91 %), United Kingdom (78 %), Luxembourg (74 %), Ireland (62 %) and Croatia (49 %). Their own production cannot satisfy their demand.

In Global Ambition scenario, all countries show demand curtailment. Most of the countries show 24 % demand curtailment. The Netherlands shows 41% demand curtailment and Belgium and ­Germany cannot cooperate more due to bottlenecks. Italy shows 16% demand curtailment and cannot cooperate with Austria due to infrastructure limitations. Countries not interconnected to the hydrogen network show highest demand curtailment values: Serbia (100 %), Slovenia (94 %), ­United Kingdom (76 %), Luxembourg (71 %), Ireland (62 %) and Croatia (45 %). Their own ­production cannot satisfy their demand.

H₂ Infrastructure Level 2

In Distributed Energy scenario, all countries mitigate their demand curtailment due to additional interconnections and more hydrogen production using methane. Most of the countries mitigate their demand curtailment to 21 %. Eastern countries (Bulgaria, Greece, Romania and Hungary) directly impacted by the Ukrainian supply disruption show 24 % demand curtailment. Other interconnected countries cannot more cooperate due to infrastructure limitations. Countries not interconnected mitigate their demand curtailment: Serbia (49 %), Croatia (49 %), Slovenia (42 %), United Kingdom (36 %), Ireland (25 %) and Luxembourg (27 %).

In Global Ambition scenario, all countries mitigate their demand curtailment due to additional interconnections and more hydrogen production using methane. Most of the countries mitigate their demand curtailment to 13 %. Eastern countries (Bulgaria, Greece, Romania and Hungary) directly impacted by the Ukrainian supply disruption show 17 % demand curtailment. Other interconnected countries cannot more cooperate due to bottlenecks. Countries which are not interconnected mitigate their demand curtailment: Serbia (49 %), Croatia (48 %), Slovenia (49 %), United Kingdom (36 %), Ireland (25 %) and Luxembourg (27 %).

  • 2040
H₂ Infrastructure Level 1

In Distributed Energy scenario, all countries show demand curtailment. Most of the countries show 49 % demand curtailment. Countries not ­interconnected to the hydrogen network show highest demand curtailment values: Serbia (100 %), United Kingdom (87 %), Luxembourg (88 %) and Ireland (14 %). Their own production cannot satisfy their demand.

In Global Ambition scenario, all countries show demand curtailment. Most of the countries show 64 % demand curtailment. Countries not interconnected to the hydrogen network show highest demand curtailment values: Serbia (100 %), United Kingdom (90 %), Luxembourg (93 %) and Ireland (81 %). Their own production cannot satisfy their demand.

H₂ Infrastructure Level 2

In the Distributed Energy scenario, all countries mitigate their demand curtailment due to additional interconnections and more hydrogen production using methane. Most of the countries mitigate their demand curtailment to 31 %. ­Eastern ­countries (Greece, Bulgaria, Serbia, Romania, ­Croatia, ­Slovenia and Hungary) show 33 % demand ­curtailment and other interconnected countries cannot cooperate more due to infrastructure limitations. United Kingdom shows higher demand curtailment (48 %) due to bottlenecks with ­Belgium and Ireland. Ireland increases its demand ­curtailment to 16 % due to a higher cooperation with United Kingdom.

In Global Ambition scenario, all countries mitigate their demand curtailment due to additional interconnections and more hydrogen production using methane. Most of the countries mitigate their demand curtailment to 44 %. Eastern countries (Greece, Bulgaria, Serbia, Romania, Croatia, ­Slovenia, Slovakia and Hungary) show 49 % demand curtailment and other countries ­interconnected cannot cooperate more due to infrastructure limitations. United Kingdom and Ireland show higher demand curtailment (52 %) due to a bottleneck with Belgium. Poland, Latvia, Lithuania, Czech Republic and Estonia show 48 % demand curtailment. Other interconnected ­countries cannot cooperate more with them due to infrastructure limitations (bottlenecks).

  • 2050
H₂ Infrastructure Level 1

In Distributed Energy scenario, most of the countries show 55 % demand curtailment. Portugal shows 40 % demand curtailment and cannot cooperate more with Spain to mitigate its demand curtailment due to a bottleneck. Ireland is isolated but shows only 8 % demand curtailment due to high hydrogen production. Other countries which are not interconnected show a higher demand curtailment. Serbia (100 %), Luxembourg (91 %) and United Kingdom (68 %) cannot satisfy their demand with their own hydrogen production.

In Global Ambition scenario, most of the countries show 67 % demand curtailment. Eastern countries (Greece, Bulgaria, Romania, Slovenia, Croatia, ­Slovakia and Hungary) show 76 % demand curtailment and other countries cannot cooperate more due to infrastructure limitations. Austria, Switzerland, Italy, Spain and Portugal cooperate at the maximum with Eastern countries, but bottlenecks do not allow them to mitigate demand curtailment. Other countries which are not interconnected show a higher demand curtailment. Serbia (100 %), Luxembourg (95 %), Ireland (69 %) and United Kingdom (79 %) cannot satisfy their demand with their own hydrogen production.

H₂ Infrastructure Level 2

In Distributed Energy scenario, all countries ­mitigated their demand curtailment due to ­additional interconnections and more hydrogen production using methane. Most of them show 29 % demand curtailment. United Kingdom shows 44 % demand curtailment due to infrastructure limitations with Belgium (28 %) and Ireland (22 %).

In Global Ambition scenario, all countries mitigated their demand curtailment due to additional interconnections and more hydrogen production using methane. Most of the countries show 34 % demand curtailment. Eastern countries (Greece, Bulgaria, Romania, Slovenia, Croatia, Slovakia and Hungary) show 47 % demand curtailment and other countries cannot cooperate more due to infrastructure limitations. Other countries mitigate their demand curtailment: Serbia (47 %), Ireland (46 %) and United Kingdom (46 %). Belgium shows 32 % demand curtailment and cannot cooperate more with United Kingdom due to infrastructure limitation (bottleneck).

SAR fig 077a legende

Figure 11.6a: UA H₂ Supply Disruption – Hydrogen Results for Peak Demand in Existing CH₄ Infrastructure and H₂ Level 1

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Figure 11.6b: UA H₂ Supply Disruption – Hydrogen Results for Peak Demand in Existing CH₄ Infrastructure and H₂ Level 2

11.4.2.2 Advanced and PCI hydrogen

Advanced and PCI methane infrastructure ­levels do not change simulation results in Existing. Advanced and PCI infrastructure levels add more flexibility on the methane side, but hydrogen production is capped, and this additional flexibility cannot be used.

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