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9 North Africa Hydrogen Supply Disruption

9.1 Yearly demand

North Africa Hydrogen supply disruption does not impact simulations results in 2025 Best Estimate and in National Trends demand scenarios (2030 and 2040); in those scenarios, there is no hydrogen import potential and methane demand ­curtailment is not impacted compared to the Reference Case.

The infrastructure assessment is limited to ­Distributed Energy and Global Ambition demand scenarios in 2030, 2040 and 2050.

9.1.1 Methane Results

9.1.1.1 Existing

North Africa hydrogen supply disruption impact only one demand scenario and one year. In 2040, in Global Ambition scenario, Hungary, Romania, Serbia, Bulgaria and North Macedonia show 2 % demand curtailment using the maximum SMR supply potential. Neighbouring countries cannot cooperate due to infrastructure limitations and do not mitigate demand curtailment.

9.1.1.2 Advanced and PCI Methane

Demand curtailment is fully mitigated in advanced and PCI infrastructure level.

Figure 9.1: NA H₂ Supply Disruption – Methane Results for Yearly Demand in Existing CH₄ with H₂ Level 1

9.1.2 Hydrogen Results

9.1.2.1 Existing Hydrogen
  • 2030
H₂ Infrastructure Level 1

In both scenarios (Distributed Energy and Global Ambition), Italy is curtailed respectively to 29 % and 2 %. Hydrogen bottleneck does not allow Austria to cooperate more with Italy. Ireland, United Kingdom, Slovenia and Serbia, without any interconnections with other countries they cannot satisfy their demand with their own hydrogen production.

H₂ Infrastructure Level 2

Italy is curtailed (23 % in Distributed Energy ­scenario and 2 % in Global Ambition scenario) and hydrogen infrastructures limitations do not allow Austria to cooperate more with Italy. Other countries already curtailed in Infrastructure Level 1 can now satisfy their demand with interconnections with neighbouring countries and cooperation.

  • 2040
H₂ Infrastructure Level 1

In Distributed Energy scenario, most of the countries show demand curtailment (8 % to 9 %) with a good cooperation between countries. Countries on the east side (Croatia, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria and Greece) with more supply show limited curtailment (3 % to 5 %) but cannot cooperate more with other countries due to infrastructure limitations. Italy (13 %), Spain (12 %) and Portugal (10 %) show higher demand curtailment compared to other countries due to bottlenecks with neighbouring countries (Austria and Slovenia for Italy and France, Portugal with Spain). United Kingdom (84 %), Luxembourg (84 %) and Serbia (100 %) without any interconnection with neighbouring countries they cannot satisfy their demand with own production.

In Global Ambition scenario, most of the ­countries show demand curtailment (18 % to 19 %). ­Countries on the east side (Croatia, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria and Greece) with more supply limit their curtailment to 14 % to 15 % and cannot cooperate more with other countries due to infrastructure limitations. Italy (31 %), Spain and Portugal (32 %) show higher demand curtailment compared to other countries due to bottlenecks with neighbouring countries (Austria and Slovenia for Italy and France with Spain). The other countries show demand curtailment: Ireland(50 %), United Kingdom (71 %) and Serbia (100 %) without any interconnections with other countries do not satisfy their demand with their own production.

H₂ Infrastructure Level 2

All countries mitigate demand curtailment. In ­Distributed Energy scenario, most of the countries reach 3 % demand curtailment and countries on the east side (Croatia, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria and Greece) with more supply show no curtailment but cannot cooperate more with other countries due to infrastructure limitations. In Global Ambition scenario, most of the countries show 4 % demand curtailment. Countries on the east side (Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria and Greece) with more supply limit their curtailment to 1 % and cannot cooperate more with other countries due to bottlenecks. Spain and Portugal show respectively 12 % and 10 % demand curtailment. France and Portugal cannot cooperate more with Spain due to infrastructure limitations between France, Portugal and Spain.

  • 2050
H₂ Infrastructure Level 1

In Distributed Energy scenario, most of the countries show demand curtailment (19 % to 20 %). Countries on the east side (Croatia, Hungary, Bulgaria and Greece) with more supply limit their curtailment to 3 to 4 % and cannot cooperate more with other countries due to infrastructure limitation. Italy (30 %) and Spain (23 %) show higher demand curtailment compared to other countries due to infrastructure limitations with neighbouring countries (Austria and Slovenia for Italy and France and Portugal with Spain). Portugal shows only 9 % demand curtailment and cannot cooperate with Spain due to infrastructure limitation (bottleneck). The other countries are curtailed: United Kingdom (26 %), Luxembourg (87 %), and Serbia (100 %), without any interconnections with other countries do not satisfy their demand with their own production.

In Global Ambition scenario, most of the countries show demand curtailment (28 %). Italy shows 48 % demand curtailment, and interconnected countries, Austria, Slovenia and Spain cannot cooperate more due to infrastructure limitations. Greece shows 39 % demand curtailment due to infrastructure limitation with Bulgaria. Bulgaria shows 30 % demand curtailment due to infrastructure limitation with Romania. Spain shows 37 % demand curtailment due to infrastructure limitations with France and Portugal with respectively 26 % and 30 % demand curtailment. The other countries: Ireland (27 %), United Kingdom (49 %), Luxembourg (91 %) and Serbia (100 %), without any interconnections with other countries cannot satisfy their demand with their own hydrogen production.

H₂ Infrastructure Level 2

In Distributed Energy scenario, Ireland, Eastern countries (Croatia, Hungary, Slovakia, Romania, Bulgaria, Serbia and Greece) fully mitigate their demand curtailment. The rest of the countries show 5 % demand curtailment except for Portugal with 3 %. Eastern countries cannot cooperate with other countries due to bottlenecks and Portugal cannot help to mitigate Spain‘s demand curtailment due to infrastructure limitations between Portugal and Spain.

Demand curtailment is fully mitigated in Global Ambition scenario. Only Spain (5 %) and Portugal (4 %) show demand curtailment and France cannot cooperate more with Spain due to a bottleneck between France and Spain and between Portugal and Spain.

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Figure 9.2a: NA H₂ Supply Disruption – Hydrogen Results for Yearly Demand in Existing CH₄ Infrastructure and H₂ Level 1

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Figure 9.2b: NA H₂ Supply Disruption – Hydrogen Results for Yearly Demand in Existing CH₄ Infrastructure and H₂ Level 2

9.1.2.2 Advanced and PCI Infrastructure

Simulations results show no difference in Advanced and PCI infrastructure level.

9.2 2-Week Cold Spell demand

9.2.1 Methane Results

9.2.1.1 Existing

Demand curtailment results are similar to the curtailment rates in the reference case. The North Africa Hydrogen disruption does not impact the methane simulation results.

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Figure 9.3a: NA H₂ Supply Disruption – Methane Results for Yearly Demand in Existing CH₄ Infrastructure and H₂ Level 1

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Figure 9.3b: NA H₂ Supply Disruption – Methane Results for Yearly Demand in Existing CH₄ Infrastructure and H₂ Level 2

9.2.1.2 Advanced and PCI Methane

Demand curtailment is fully mitigated as in Reference case. The North Africa Hydrogen disruption does not impact the methane simulation results.

9.2.2 Hydrogen Results

9.2.2.1 Existing Hydrogen
  • 2030
H₂ Infrastructure Level 1

In Distributed Energy scenario, Ireland (43 %), United Kingdom (71 %), Luxembourg (70 %), Croatia (38 %), Slovenia (89 %) and Serbia (100 %) are not interconnected and show demand curtailment. Their own production cannot satisfy their demand. Italy (49 %) without North Africa supply cannot satisfy its demand and a bottleneck does not allow Austria to cooperate more with Italy. The Netherlands shows 31 % demand curtailment. Belgium and Germany cannot cooperate more due to infrastructure limitations. The other countries show 22 % demand curtailment and infrastructure show no bottlenecks and allow a good cooperation.

In Global Ambition scenario, Ireland (46 %), United Kingdom (69 %), Luxembourg (66 %), Croatia (32 %), Slovenia (92 %) and Serbia (100 %) are not interconnected and show demand curtailment. Their own production cannot satisfy their demand. Italy (36 %) without North Africa supply cannot satisfy its demand and infrastructure limitations do not allow Austria to cooperate more with Italy. The Netherlands shows 23 % demand curtailment. Belgium and Germany cannot cooperate more due to bottlenecks. The other countries show 13 % demand curtailment and infrastructure show no bottlenecks and allow a good cooperation.

H₂ Infrastructure Level 2

In Distributed Energy scenario, Italy show 48 % demand curtailment and Austria cannot cooperate more due to mitigate demand curtailment in Italy. Ireland fully mitigates its demand curtailment with the use of storage and additional hydrogen production with the use of methane. Serbia (41 %), Slovenia (29 %), UK (19 %) and Luxembourg (15 %) mitigate their demand curtailment as the rest of the countries (11 %). With terminal in United Kingdom, the use of storages, new interconnections and additional hydrogen production with the use of methane, those countries mitigate their demand curtailment.

In Global Ambition scenario, simulations show similar results with lower demand curtailment due to lower demand values. The rest of the countries reach 3 % and are closed to satisfy their demand.

  • 2040
H₂ Infrastructure Level 1

In Distributed Energy scenario, United Kingdom (83 %), Luxembourg (87 %) and Serbia (100 %) are not interconnected and show demand curtailment. Their own production cannot satisfy their demand. Italy (42 %) and Switzerland (42 %) without North Africa supply cannot satisfy its demand and infrastructure limitations (bottlenecks) with Austria and Slovenia does not allow Austria and Slovenia to cooperate more with Italy. The other countries show 39 % demand curtailment and infrastructure show no bottlenecks and allow a good cooperation. Portugal and Spain show 41 % demand curtailment and France cannot cooperate more with Spain due to infrastructure limitation (bottleneck).

In the Global Ambition scenario, situation is similar with higher demand curtailment. United Kingdom (85 %), Luxembourg (91 %) and Serbia (100 %) are not interconnected and show demand curtailment. Their own production cannot satisfy their demand. Italy (63 %) and Switzerland (63 %) without North Africa supply cannot satisfy its demand and infrastructure limitations with Austria and Slovenia do not allow Austria and Slovenia to cooperate more with Italy. The other countries show 52 % demand curtailment and infrastructure show no bottlenecks and allow a good cooperation. Portugal and Spain show 62 % demand curtailment and France cannot cooperate more with Spain due to a infrastructure limitation.

H₂ Infrastructure Level 2

In Distributed Energy scenario, Italy shows 30 % demand curtailment and Spain, Austria and Slovenia cannot cooperate more to mitigate demand curtailment in Italy due to infrastructure limitations. Ireland fully mitigates its demand curtailment with the use of storage and additional hydrogen production with methane. United Kingdom shows 32 % curtailment rate and bottlenecks do not allow ­interconnected countries (Belgium, Ireland) to mitigate demand curtailment. Most of the rest of the countries show 29 % demand curtailment. ­Slovakia, Hungary, Croatia, Serbia and Romania, with 16 % demand curtailment, cannot cooperate with those countries due to bottlenecks as they cannot cooperate with Bulgaria and Greece with 28 % demand curtailment due to infrastructure limitation with Romania and Serbia.

In Global Ambition scenario, most of the countries show 39 % demand curtailment and we can observe a good cooperation between all countries due to high demand curtailment. Only Ireland has lower demand curtailment (22 %) and cannot cooperate with United Kingdom to mitigate its demand curtailment due to a bottleneck between Ireland and United Kingdom.

  • 2050
H₂ Infrastructure Level 1

In Distributed Energy scenario, Luxembourg and United Kingdom show respectively 90 % and 57 % demand curtailment (no interconnection with neighbouring countries). Italy and Switzerland show 51 % demand curtailment due to North Africa supply disruption and Austria cannot cooperate more with Italy to mitigate demand curtailment. Spain shows 51 % demand curtailment and cooperate at its maximum and France (46 %) and Portugal (32 %) cannot cooperate more due to infrastructure limitations. Eastern countries (­Slovakia, ­Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria and Greece) show 32 % demand curtailment and cannot cooperate with other countries with 46 % demand curtailment due to bottlenecks.

In Global Ambition scenario, Luxembourg, Ireland and United Kingdom show respectively 94 %, 51 % and 68 % demand curtailment. Without any interconnection with other countries, they cannot satisfy their demand with their own production. Italy, Switzerland, Portugal and Spain show 69 % demand curtailment due to supply disruption from North Africa and infrastructure limitation from Austria and Slovenia to Italy and from France to Spain. Greece shows 65 % demand curtailment and Bulgaria cannot cooperate more with Greece due to a bottleneck between Bulgaria and Greece. Other countries show 58 % demand curtailment.

H₂ Infrastructure Level 2

In Distributed Energy scenario, United Kingdom shows 27 % demand curtailment and Ireland fully mitigates its demand curtailment and cannot cooperate more with United Kingdom due to an infrastructure limitation between Ireland and United Kingdom. Eastern countries (Slovakia, Serbia, Croatia, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria and Greece) show only 15 % demand curtailment and cannot cooperate with other countries with 25 % demand curtailment due to bottlenecks.

In Global Ambition scenario, all countries show 25 % demand curtailment. Only Ireland shows 21 % demand curtailment and cannot cooperate more with United Kingdom due to abottleneck with United Kingdom.

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Figure 9.4a: NA H₂ Supply Disruption – Hydrogen Results for 2W Demand in Existing CH₄ Infrastructure and H₂ Level 1

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Figure 9.4b: NA H₂ Supply Disruption – Hydrogen Results for 2W Demand in Existing CH₄ Infrastructure and H₂ Level 2

9.2.2.2 Advanced and PCI Hydrogen

Advanced and PCI methane infrastructure levels does not show any difference with Existing infrastructure level.

Hydrogen infrastructure is limited in the use of methane to produce hydrogen and the Advanced or PCI infrastructure levels does not add any additional hydrogen

9.3 2-Week Dunkelflaute demand

The 2-Week Dunkelflaute country demands are generally very similar to the 2-Week Cold Spell demand values. Hydrogen demand is the same for Best Estimate and National Trends scenarios and it is also the same in the year 2030 of Distributed Energy and Global Ambition scenarios. Regarding Distributed Energy and Global Ambition scenarios in 2040 and 2050, only Italy, The Netherlands, Romania and United Kingdom show higher values in 2-Week Dunkelflaute.

Regarding the methane demand values, only Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Germany, Croatia and Italy present slight differences when comparing demand of 2-Week Dunkelflaute with 2-Week Cold in Best Estimate and National trends scenarios.

In Distributed Energy and Global Ambition scenarios just Spain, France, Greece, Italy, The Netherlands, Portugal, Romania and United Kingdom present higher methane demand in 2-Week Dunkelflaute.

Consequently, the curtailment rate results in 2-Week Dunkelflaute and in 2-Week Cold Spell are exactly the same for most of the countries. The countries with higher demand in 2-Week Dunkelflaute are only increasing their demand curtailment rate in 1 or 2 % maximum.

9.4 Peak demand

Simulations results are similar to 2-Week Cold Spell simulations results but with higher demand curtailment values due to higher demand values.

9.4.1 Methane Results

9.4.1.1 Existing

North Africa supply disruption does not impact the methane side. Demand curtailment are demand curtailment in Reference case.

9.4.1.2 Advanced and PCI Methane

Demand curtailment is fully mitigated in all countries

9.4.2 Hydrogen Results

9.4.2.1 Existing
  • 2030
H₂ Infrastructure Level 1

In Distributed Energy scenario, Ireland (62 %), United Kingdom (78 %), Luxembourg (74 %), ­Croatia (49 %), Slovenia (91 %) and Serbia (100 %) are not interconnected and show demand curtailment. Their own production cannot satisfy their demand. Italy (58 %) without North Africa supply cannot satisfy its demand and a bottleneck does not allow Austria to cooperate more with Italy. The Netherlands shows 46 % demand curtailment. Belgium and Germany cannot cooperate more due to bottle­necks. The other countries show 33 % demand curtailment and infrastructure show no bottlenecks and allow a good cooperation.

In Global Ambition scenario, Ireland (62 %), United Kingdom (76 %), Luxembourg (71 %), Croatia (45 %), Slovenia (94 %) and Serbia (100 %) are not interconnected and show demand curtailment. Their own production cannot satisfy their demand. Italy (47 %) without North Africa supply cannot satisfy its demand and a bottleneck does not allow Austria to cooperate more with Italy. The Netherlands shows 41 % demand curtailment. Belgium and Germany cannot cooperate more due to bottle­necks. The other countries show 25 % demand curtailment and infrastructure show no bottlenecks and allow a good cooperation.

H₂ Infrastructure Level 2

In Distributed Energy scenario, Italy shows 58 % demand curtailment and Austria cannot cooperate more to mitigate demand curtailment in Italy due to an infrastructure limitation. Ireland (25 %), Serbia (49 %), Slovenia (42 %), United Kingdom (36 %) and Luxembourg (27 %) mitigate their demand curtailment as the rest of the countries (21 %). With terminal in United Kingdom, the use of storages, new interconnections and additional hydrogen ­production with the use of methane, those countries mitigate their demand curtailment. Eastern countries (Bulgaria, Greece, Hungary, Romania) show 25 % demand curtailment and ­other ­countries interconnected cannot cooperate with them due to infrastructure limitations.

In Global Ambition scenario, Italy shows 47 % demand curtailment and Austria cannot ­cooperate more to mitigate demand curtailment in Italy due to an infrastructure limitation. Ireland (20 %), Serbia (49 %), Slovenia (44 %), United Kingdom (40 %) and Luxembourg (29 %) mitigate their demand curtailment as the rest of the countries (14 %). With terminal in United Kingdom, the use of storages, new interconnections and additional hydrogen ­production with the use of methane, those ­countries mitigate their demand curtailment. Eastern countries (Bulgaria, Greece, Hungary, Romania) show 27 % demand curtailment and other countries interconnected cannot cooperate with them due to infrastructure limitations.

  • 2040
H₂ Infrastructure Level 1

In Distributed Energy scenario, Serbia and Luxembourg show respectively 100 % and 88 % demand curtailment. Most of the rest of the countries show 48 % demand curtailment without enough supply. Eastern countries (Bulgaria, Croatia, Greece, Hungary, Romania) show 43 % demand curtailment and cannot cooperate more with other countries due to infrastructure limitations. Ireland shows only 14 % demand curtailment due to national production and additional hydrogen production using methane.

In Global Ambition scenario, Ireland, United Kingdom, Serbia and Luxembourg show respectively 81 %, 90 %, 100 % and 93 % demand curtailment. Italy, Switzerland, Spain and Portugal show 68 % and due to infrastructure limitations Austria cannot cooperate more with Italy and neither France with Spain. Most of the countries show 62 % demand curtailment without enough supply and Ireland shows only 14 % demand curtailment due to national production and additional hydrogen production using methane.

H₂ Infrastructure Level 2

In Distributed Energy scenario, can be observed that a large improvement for all countries due to additional supply (LH₂ in United Kingdom) and more interconnections and increased capacities. United Kingdom shows 52 % demand curtailment and interconnected countries (Belgium and Ireland) cannot cooperate more due to infrastructure limitations. The rest of the countries show 46 % demand curtailment without any infrastructure limitations. Ireland shows only 16 % demand curtailment due to its national production and additional hydrogen production using methane.

In Global Ambition scenario, we observe a large improvement for all countries (–20 % demand curtailment in average). United Kingdom and Ireland show 52 % demand curtailment and Belgium cannot more cooperate due to a bottleneck. The rest of the countries show 46 % demand curtailment and good cooperation.

  • 2050
H₂ Infrastructure Level 1

In Distributed Energy scenario, Serbia, Luxembourg and United Kingdom are isolated countries (not interconnected) show respectively 100 %, 91 %, 68 % demand curtailment. Switzerland and Italy show 58 % demand curtailment and Spain, Austria and Slovenia cannot cooperate more with Italy due to infrastructure limitations. All the other countries show 54 % demand curtailment except for Eastern countries (Greece, Croatia, Bulgaria, Hungary, Slovakia and Romania) with 42 % demand curtailment cannot cooperate more due to infrastructure limitations. Portugal and Ireland show only 40 % and 8 % demand curtailment and cannot cooperate more with Spain and United Kingdom due infrastructure limitations (bottlenecks).

In Global Ambition scenario, Serbia, Luxembourg and United Kingdom are isolated countries (not interconnected) show respectively 100 %, 95 %, 79 % demand curtailment. Switzerland and Italy show 76 % demand curtailment and Spain, Austria and Slovenia cannot cooperate more with Italy due to infrastructure limitations. Portugal cooperates at the maximum with Spain but reaches 69 % demand curtailment and Spain 70 %. And France reaches 65 % demand curtailment. Ireland reaches 69 % demand curtailment and cannot cooperate more with United Kingdom. The rest pf the countries show 66 % demand curtailment.

H₂ Infrastructure Level 2

In Distributed Energy scenario, demand curtailment is mitigated for all countries and most of the countries reach 27 % demand curtailment. United Kingdom shows 44 % demand curtailment and Spain and Italy 34 %. Portugal is reaching 27 % and cannot cooperate more with Spain due to infrastructure limitation. Ireland is reaching 22 % and cannot cooperate more with United Kingdom sue to infrastructure limitation.

In Global Ambition scenario, demand ­curtailment is mitigated in all countries. United Kingdom and ­Ireland show 46 % demand curtailment and ­Belgium cannot cooperate more due to a bottleneck. Spain, Portugal, Austria and Slovenia show 37 % demand curtailment and cannot cooperate more with Italy (37 % demand curtailment). The rest of the countries show 33 % demand curtailment and cannot cooperate more with neighbouring countries more curtailed due to infrastructure limitations.

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Figure 9.5a: NA H₂ Supply Disruption – Hydrogen Results for Peak Demand in Existing CH₄ Infrastructure and H₂ Level 1

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Figure 9.5b: NA H₂ Supply Disruption – Hydrogen Results for Peak Demand in Existing CH₄ Infrastructure and H₂ Level 2

9.4.2.2 Advanced and PCI Hydrogen

Advanced and PCI methane infrastructure levels does not show any difference with Existing infrastructure level.

Hydrogen infrastructure is limited in the use of methane to produce hydrogen and the Advanced or PCI infrastructure levels does not add any additional hydrogen.

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