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Introduction: TYNDP 2022

ENTSOG’s TYNDP 2022, like previous editions, provides an overview of the European gas infrastructure and its future developments. It maps the ­integrated gas network according to a range of development scenarios. The TYNDP also includes a European supply adequacy outlook and an assessment of the ­network resilience. Processes for the TYNDP development already began in early 2022, when Russia commenced its war in Ukraine. The resulting impact on the energy markets was significant, and these considerations were included in the TYNDP 2022 assessments.
Robust actions are necessary to further ­support sustainability, security of supply (including independence from Russia and improving ­diversification), and to consider the ­acceleration of hydrogen deployment communicated in REPowerEU1.

The REPowerEU Plan, published by the European Commission, is Europe’s collective response to the global energy market disruptions caused by Russia‘s invasion of Ukraine. It is a plan for reducing energy consumption, accelerating the production of clean energy and diversifying energy supplies to reduce Europe’s dependency on Russian ­natural gas. The REPowerEU Plan sets out a series of measures to advance the energy transition, while increasing the resilience of the EU-wide energy system. The plan includes measures for increased production of biomethane, as well as proposals for LNG and hydrogen purchases from alternative supply sources. The TYNDP 2022 development process was adjusted and modified to include these ambitions into the perspective of the infrastructure development and its assessment.

The work on this TYNDP started more than two years ago. Since then, there occurred rapid changes in the European gas market, including increased hydrogen ambitions of many countries and commercial players. This resulted in announcements of new projects that in individual cases were backed by agreements between Member States. It should therefore be noted that this infrastructure report cannot reflect all latest developments even at its publication date. Multiple major and known developments of 2022 could be considered and have been included. Thus, the results of this TYNDP’s System Assessment should be complemented by the latest energy strategies of the Member States, for further and complete analyses.

Role of scenarios in the TYNDP

Building different and contrasted scenarios is the first important step to capture the interactions between the gas and electricity systems, therefore delivering the best foundation for the assessment of the infrastructure from an integrated system perspective.

National Trends (NT), the policy scenario

The National Trends scenario is in line with national energy and climate policies (NECPs , national long-term strategies, hydrogen strategies, etc.) derived from the European targets. The gas (i. e., methane and hydrogen) demand and supply for this ­scenario is based on figures collected from the TSOs ­translating the latest policy- and market-­driven developments as discussed at national level.

COP 21 scenarios: contrasted pathways to achieve the EU Climate Law ambition

The Distributed Energy scenario considers the decarbonisation of the European energy system from a distributed and local perspective. The gas (i.e., methane and hydrogen) demand reflects an evolution driven by a willingness of the society to achieve energy autonomy based on widely available indigenous renewable energy sources. This leads to a maximisation of renewable energy production in Europe and a strong decrease of energy imports.

Therefore, methane imports are decreasing, and methane flows are less following the traditional import supply corridors. On the contrary, new intra-European routes from areas with a high potential of renewable hydrogen production emerge based on the maximisation of hydrogen production within Europe.

The Global Ambition scenario considers the ­development of a wide range of renewable and low-carbon technologies (many being centralised) and the use of global energy trade as a tool to accelerate decarbonisation. Economies of scale lead to significant cost reductions in emerging technologies such as offshore wind, but also imports of renewable and decarbonised gases (i. e., methane and hydrogen) from competitive sources are ­considered as a viable option.

This is resulting in a relatively higher import share and using combined infrastructure of import routes and new intra-European routes to transport ­renewable and decarbonised gases (i. e., methane and hydrogen) that are produced locally.

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